Learn from the Match Preview: Twins vs Rangers Game Forecast – September 24, 2025

Minnesota Twins

@

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers welcome the Minnesota Twins to Globe Life Field on September 24, 2025, for the second game of this series. The Rangers currently sit at 79-78, having had an average season, while the Twins are struggling at 68-89, marking a disappointing year for them. The stakes are high for Texas as they aim to secure a winning record, but the Twins, despite being eliminated from their division race, will look to play spoiler.

In their last outing, Texas’s Jacob deGrom delivered a strong performance, continuing to showcase his skills as one of the league’s top pitchers. DeGrom, who is ranked as the 16th best starter according to advanced statistics, holds a solid Win/Loss record of 12-8 with an impressive 3.01 ERA. Today, he projects to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing an average of just 1.9 earned runs, although he does have a tendency to allow 4.0 hits, which could be a concern.

On the other side, Minnesota’s Taj Bradley has had a rocky season, currently holding a 6-8 record and a 5.20 ERA. While his xFIP of 4.41 suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, he still faces an uphill battle against a Rangers team that, despite ranking 26th in offensive output, will look to capitalize on any mistakes.

With the Rangers listed as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -195, they are projected to score around 4.32 runs today. Conversely, the Twins are expected to struggle offensively with an implied team total of just 3.18 runs. As Texas aims to solidify their playoff positioning, all eyes will be on deGrom to deliver another strong performance against a faltering Minnesota lineup.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Taj Bradley’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 85th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• James Outman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+115/-150)
  As it relates to his batting average, James Outman has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .146 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .185.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Jacob deGrom has averaged 17.3 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Jake Burger is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 73 games at home (+10.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-115/-115)
  Jacob deGrom has hit the Earned Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+5.80 Units / 21% ROI)