Learn from the Match Preview: Royals vs Tigers Game Forecast – August 04, 2024

Kansas City Royals

@

Detroit Tigers

The Kansas City Royals travel to Comerica Park to face the Detroit Tigers in the fourth game of their series on August 4, 2024. The Royals are currently performing well with a record of 62-50, while the Tigers are struggling at 53-59 this season. In their last game on August 3, the Tigers narrowly edged out the Royals with a 6-5 victory, showcasing the competitive nature of this matchup despite the standings.

Detroit’s projected starter, Alex Faedo, will take the mound against Kansas City’s Michael Wacha. Faedo is having a rough season, ranking as the 245th best starting pitcher in MLB and projecting to pitch just 4.2 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs. His recent performance has seen him primarily coming out of the bullpen, and he has not started a game this year. In contrast, Wacha, who ranks 85th among starting pitchers, is having a solid season with an ERA of 3.58 and a good performance in his last outing, where he went 7 innings with 2 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, neither team is lighting up the scoreboard, but the Royals have the edge with their offense ranking 12th overall compared to the Tigers, who sit at 27th. The projections indicate that the Tigers may only score about 4.12 runs, while the Royals could be looking at around 4.84 runs.

Despite the odds, the Tigers are underdogs with a moneyline of +125, while the Royals are favored at -145. However, THE BAT X projects a closer contest, giving the Royals a 55% chance to win. With their recent victory and the chance for an upset, the Tigers will be looking to build momentum against a capable Royals squad.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Michael Wacha’s 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.5-mph rise from last season’s 91.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.256) implies that Freddy Fermin has had positive variance on his side this year with his .306 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Kansas City’s 89.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #4 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Alex Faedo may not stay on the mound for more than a couple framess considering he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Justyn-Henry Malloy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Justyn-Henry Malloy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Zach McKinstry hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 85 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)
  Kyle Isbel has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 23 games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)