Learn from the Match Preview: Rockies vs Yankees Game Forecast – August 23, 2024

Colorado Rockies

@

New York Yankees

On August 23, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Colorado Rockies at Yankee Stadium in the first game of their interleague series. The Yankees enter this matchup with a strong record of 75-53, showcasing their status as a playoff contender this season. In contrast, the Rockies sit at 47-81, reflecting a disappointing year. The Yankees are riding high after a dominant 6-0 victory over the Cleveland Guardians in their last game, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Carlos Rodon, projected to start for the Yankees, is currently ranked as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Although he has been average this season with a 4.34 ERA, his recent performance has been solid, with projections suggesting he could strike out 8.3 batters on average today. Meanwhile, Kyle Freeland will take the mound for the Rockies. His struggles have been well-documented, and with a 5.97 ERA this season, he is considered below average, especially after allowing 5 earned runs in his last outing against the Washington Nationals.

From an offensive perspective, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB and rank 2nd in home runs, led by Aaron Judge, who has been on fire recently. In his last week, Judge recorded 8 hits, 6 runs, and 5 home runs, showcasing his elite form. In contrast, the Rockies rank 18th in MLB offensively, struggling to find their rhythm.

With the Yankees set as significant favorites with a moneyline of -320, they are expected to capitalize on their strong lineup against Freeland and a Rockies bullpen that ranks 26th. The projections suggest the Yankees could score as many as 5.40 runs, while the Rockies may only muster around 3.49 runs, setting the stage for New York to continue their success at home.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Kyle Freeland’s fastball velocity has increased 2.9 mph this season (91.1 mph) over where it was last year (88.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Brendan Rodgers are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-340)
  Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #5 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Gleyber Torres has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 63 games (+18.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+170/-225)
  Austin Wells has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 12 games at home (+12.95 Units / 75% ROI)