Baltimore Orioles
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)-105
As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on August 2, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for postseason positioning, sitting at 66-42 and 65-45, respectively. The Guardians are coming off a solid win against the Orioles just a day earlier, triumphing 10-3, which not only boosts their confidence but also reflects their strong offensive capabilities.
The matchup features projected starters Carlos Carrasco for the Guardians and Dean Kremer for the Orioles. Carrasco has struggled this season, holding a record of 3-9 and a concerning ERA of 5.68. Despite being ranked the 319th best starting pitcher by advanced metrics, Carrasco’s lower xFIP of 4.13 suggests he might be due for some positive regression. However, his recent outings have done little to inspire confidence, as he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 innings in his last start on July 27.
On the other side, Dean Kremer has been somewhat of a mixed bag. With a record of 4-7 and an ERA of 4.20, he ranks as a below-average arm by MLB standards. Notably, his last start saw him pitch effectively, allowing just 1 earned run over 6 innings, which might bolster the Orioles’ hopes.
Offensively, the Guardians rank 15th in MLB, while the Orioles boast the 2nd best offense overall, particularly excelling in power with the 1st most home runs this season. The projections anticipate the Orioles scoring an average of 5.47 runs, while the Guardians are expected to manage around 4.82 runs. Given these dynamics, the Guardians may need a strong performance from their bullpen, which is currently ranked 6th best in MLB, to secure a victory against a potent Orioles lineup.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Dean Kremer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Dean Kremer will average a total of 3.8 strikeouts in this game.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Colton Cowser – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Carlos Carrasco’s change-up usage has dropped by 7.5% from last year to this one (29.9% to 22.4%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- David Fry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)David Fry’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 88.6-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 81.2-mph in the past two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Austin Hedges, the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-105)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 101 games (+13.87 Units / 10% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+140)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 53 of their last 100 games (+11.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+440/-700)Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+11.50 Units / 288% ROI)