Learn from the Match Preview: Dodgers vs Padres Game Forecast – August 23, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers meet for the second game of their series on August 23, 2025, following a tightly contested matchup yesterday that saw the Padres edge out the Dodgers 2-1. Both teams sport identical records of 73-56, showcasing their strong performances this season and positioning themselves as contenders for the Wild Card, with a potential playoff spot at stake.

Nestor Cortes is projected to take the mound for the Padres. Although his current ERA stands at a troubling 5.87, advanced stats suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Despite this, his high fly-ball rate could be problematic against a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in the league for home runs, having hit 191 this season. The projections indicate Cortes is likely to allow 3.0 earned runs over an average of 5.2 innings, which isn’t ideal when facing such a potent offense.

On the other side, Tyler Glasnow guns for the Dodgers. With an impressive ERA of 3.12, he has been a standout pitcher this year and is coming off a strong performance that saw him pitch 5 innings with only 2 earned runs. While Glasnow has a high strikeout rate of 30.6%, he may find it challenging against a Padres offense that ranks 3rd lowest in strikeouts.

Betting markets project a close game with the Padres set at +115 and the Dodgers at -135 on the moneyline. With the Dodgers’ elite offensive rankings and solid bullpen—2nd best in MLB—they appear slightly favored, but the Padres’ own top-ranking bullpen might keep them in striking distance. A compelling matchup awaits as both teams look to gain ground against one another.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Tyler Glasnow has recorded 14.4 outs per start this year, placing in the 13th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Alex Call has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph dropping to 83.4-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nestor Cortes has utilized his secondary pitches 6.4% more often this year (60.8%) than he did last season (54.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Despite posting a .384 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ramon Laureano has had some very good luck given the .055 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .329.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games (+13.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 46 games (+8.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+7.70 Units / 31% ROI)