Learn About Yankees vs Athletics Picks and Betting Trends – Friday September 20, 2024

New York Yankees

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Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics are set to host the New York Yankees at the Oakland Coliseum on September 20, 2024, in an American League matchup. The Athletics, with a struggling 67-86 record, have been eliminated from division contention, while the Yankees, boasting an impressive 89-64 record, are having a strong season and are in the hunt for playoff positioning.

In their last outings, the Athletics pulled off an upset against the Cubs with a 5-3 victory on September 18, defying their underdog status. Meanwhile, the Yankees fell short in a tight 3-2 loss to the Mariners, despite entering the game as slight favorites.

The pitching matchup features J.T. Ginn for the Athletics and Gerrit Cole for the Yankees. Ginn, ranked 175th among approximately 350 pitchers, has had a tough season with a 4.94 ERA and a 0-1 record. However, his 3.84 xFIP suggests some bad luck, indicating potential for improvement. On the other hand, Cole, ranked 31st, has been solid with a 3.97 ERA and a 6-5 record, despite a rough last outing where he allowed seven earned runs in four innings.

Offensively, the Yankees have a distinct advantage, ranking 3rd in MLB, highlighted by their 1st place standing in home runs. Aaron Judge has been a standout performer, hitting .321 with 53 home runs and 136 RBIs. The Athletics’ offense, while average overall at 17th, excels in power with a 7th place ranking in home runs. Brent Rooker, their top hitter, has been hot lately, boasting a .417 average over the last week.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are favored with a 61% win probability, while the Athletics are projected at 39%. Despite being underdogs, the Athletics’ recent victory and home run potential offer intriguing dynamics for this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Gerrit Cole’s 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 91st percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Alex Verdugo is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Yankees have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Oakland Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Because groundball batters hold a big advantage over flyball pitchers, J.T. Ginn and his 49% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in today’s game going up against 0 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Brent Rooker has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Oakland’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the game: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+165)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 91 games (+13.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+670/-1400)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 13 games at home (+9.40 Units / 72% ROI)