Learn About Tigers vs Reds Picks and Betting Trends – July 06, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers face off again on July 6, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, currently holding a 42-46 record, are having a below-average season and aim to bounce back after dropping a tight 5-4 game to the Tigers on July 5. The Tigers, who also have a subpar 40-48 record, managed to edge out the Reds in that previous contest.

Hunter Greene will take the mound for the Reds, bringing his 5-4 record and 3.70 ERA into the game. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Greene ranks as the 68th best starting pitcher in MLB, reflecting his above-average talent. He’s projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs while striking out 6.7 batters — a solid stat line. Greene’s high walk rate could pose a challenge, but the Tigers rank among the least disciplined teams in MLB, which could mitigate this issue.

On the other side, Alex Faedo is slated to start for Detroit. Despite sporting a commendable 3.35 ERA###102, Faedo’s peripherals suggest that he’s been fortunate this season. The projections are not kind to Faedo: he’s expected to give up 2.6 earned runs in just 4.0 innings while recording 3.8 strikeouts. Faedo’s struggles are compounded by Detroit’s weak offensive performance, ranking 27th in MLB.

Offensively, the Reds are led by Elly De La Cruz, boasting an .822 OPS with 15 home runs and 43 stolen bases this season. The Tigers’ Riley Greene has been their best hitter, with a .868 OPS and 17 home runs. However, the Tigers’ lineup is one of the least productive in MLB, ranking 27th, whereas the Reds are slightly better but still lackluster, sitting 23rd.

From a betting perspective, the Reds are favored with a -150 moneyline and a 57% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, also giving Cincinnati a 57% chance to emerge victorious. The Reds, projected to score 5.37 runs, are expected to exploit Faedo’s vulnerabilities, making them an attractive bet to even the series.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Alex Faedo may not stay in the game more than a couple frames consider he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme flyball batters like Riley Greene tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Detroit Tigers have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 11.4° figure is among the lowest in baseball this year (#26 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Hunter Greene’s slider percentage has fallen by 7.2% from last year to this one (40.5% to 33.3%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Nick Martini – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Nick Martini has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+10.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+9.30 Units / 28% ROI)