Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Yankees vs Rays – Tuesday August 19, 2025

New York Yankees

@

Tampa Bay Rays

On August 19, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the New York Yankees in the first game of their series at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The Yankees, currently sitting at 67-57, are having an above-average season, while the Rays, with a record of 61-64, are experiencing an average year. Both teams are looking to make a push for the postseason, but the Yankees are in a stronger position.

In their last outing, the Yankees secured a narrow victory against the Rays, which adds an extra layer of intensity to this matchup. Tampa Bay’s Shane Baz is projected to take the mound, sporting an 8-9 record and a 4.93 ERA this season. Although his ERA is below average, his xFIP of 3.84 suggests he might be due for better results. Baz has a respectable strikeout rate of 6.2 strikeouts per game but struggles with allowing hits and walks.

Opposing him will be New York’s Carlos Rodon, who boasts a 12-7 record and an impressive 3.25 ERA. Rodon’s advanced metrics indicate he could be facing some regression, but his performance has been solid overall. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs and striking out 5.9 batters in that span.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 2nd in MLB, highlighted by their league-leading 195 home runs. In contrast, the Rays stand at 18th offensively, but their strength lies in their speed on the bases, ranking 1st in stolen bases. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Yankees favored with a moneyline of -145, this matchup seems to favor New York, especially with their strong lineup against a pitcher like Baz who may face challenges.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Carlos Rodon’s 93.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 2-mph decline from last year’s 95.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Ben Rice has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 100.8-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Trent Grisham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Recording 92.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Shane Baz places in the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.3) may lead us to conclude that Junior Caminero has been very fortunate this year with his 41.7 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Everson Pereira, Christopher Morel, Brandon Lowe).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 124 games (+12.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 108 games (+5.32 Units / 4% ROI)
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-190)
  Ben Rice has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 60% ROI)