Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Yankees vs Rays – Tuesday August 19, 2025

New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees on August 19, 2025, in a crucial American League East matchup that could have implications for both teams. The Rays, currently sitting at 61-64, find themselves in a challenging position, while the Yankees, boasting a 67-57 record, are contending for a playoff spot. In their last game, the Rays struggled, losing 7-1 to the Yankees, who come off a victory where they overcame the Rays 8-4.

Starting for the Rays is Shane Baz, who has had a moderately successful season with an 8-9 record and a 4.93 ERA. Despite a recent performance where he pitched 7 innings with 4 earned runs, Baz’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as indicated by his 3.84 xFIP. He projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings today, allowing around 2.7 earned runs with a solid strikeout rate of 6.0 batters.

On the other side, the Yankees will send Carlos Rodon to the mound. With a 12-7 record and an impressive 3.25 ERA, Rodon has demonstrated why he is considered an above-average starter. He pitched well in his last outing, surrendering just 1 earned run over 7 innings. However, projections indicate that he may be due for regression, evidenced by a slightly elevated 3.82 xFIP.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 2nd in the league, bolstered by power hitters, while the Rays’ offense is rated 18th. Even though Tampa Bay ranks 1st in stolen bases, their ability to capitalize against Rodon might take a hit due to his high walk rate and the Rays’ impatience at the plate.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the Yankees are favorites with a moneyline of -140, while the Rays are seen as underdogs with a moneyline of +120. Given the discrepancies in performance metrics and recent form, the Yankees may hold the upper hand, but baseball is unpredictable.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Carlos Rodon’s 93.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 2-mph decline from last year’s 95.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Ben Rice has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.4-mph to 99.1-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Trent Grisham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Recording 92.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Shane Baz places in the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.3) may lead us to conclude that Junior Caminero has been very fortunate this year with his 41.7 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Lowe, Everson Pereira, Christopher Morel).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 124 games (+12.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 108 games (+5.32 Units / 4% ROI)
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+6.65 Units / 26% ROI)