Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Red Sox vs Tigers – Saturday August 31, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on August 31, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive matchup despite their standings. The Tigers, sitting at 68-68, are having an average season, while the Red Sox, with a record of 70-65, are performing above expectations. This game marks the second in their series, and the stakes are high as both teams look to gain momentum.

In their last outing, the Tigers’ pitcher Tarik Skubal shined, continuing his elite season with a stellar 15-4 record and an impressive 2.58 ERA. Skubal, ranked as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB, faces a Red Sox offense that, while potent, has shown vulnerability to high-strikeout pitchers like him. The projections suggest he will average 7.1 strikeouts today, which could play a key role in neutralizing Boston’s lineup.

On the other side, Nick Pivetta, projected to start for the Red Sox, has had an average season with a 5-9 record and a 4.61 ERA. Although he is ranked 78th among starting pitchers, his 3.48 xFIP indicates he may be due for improvement. However, Pivetta’s struggle with walks and hits could be detrimental against a struggling Tigers offense ranked 23rd overall in MLB and 23rd in team batting average.

The projections favor the Tigers, who are seen as slight favorites with a projected win probability of 58%. With Tarik Skubal on the mound and the Red Sox’s recent struggles against lefties, Detroit might just edge out Boston in this critical matchup. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, underscoring the expectation of a tight contest. As the season winds down, every game counts, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Nick Pivetta wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out in his last game started and put up 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  As it relates to his batting average, Connor Wong has been lucky this year. His .285 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .241.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen projects as the 7th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Generating 18.5 outs per game per started this year on average, Tarik Skubal ranks in the 98th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Zach McKinstry hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-140)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 44 away games (+14.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+180/-235)
  Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.40 Units / 56% ROI)