Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-225
As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 9, 2024, they find themselves in an intriguing matchup that features contrasting narratives. The Dodgers are currently 66-49, showcasing a strong season, while the Pirates sit at 56-58, hovering around the .500 mark. This game marks the first in their series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum.
In their last outings, the Dodgers faced a tough loss against the Philadelphia Phillies on August 7, falling 9-4. Meanwhile, the Pirates narrowly dropped their game against the San Diego Padres, losing 7-6. Despite these recent results, the Dodgers are still viewed as heavy favorites, with a moneyline of -205 and a projected team total of 4.37 runs. In contrast, the Pirates’ low implied total of 3.13 runs reflects their offensive struggles this season, ranking 26th in MLB.
On the mound, the Dodgers are set to start Jack Flaherty, who has been impressive this year with a stellar 2.80 ERA and a high strikeout rate of 31.8%. Flaherty’s recent performance includes a gem on August 3 where he threw 6 innings without allowing a run, striking out 7. Facing him is Mitch Keller, who has a solid 3.20 ERA but is projected to allow 3.4 earned runs today, indicating potential vulnerability against a potent Dodgers offense that ranks 4th in MLB.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Dodgers significantly, projecting them to score an impressive 5.49 runs on average. With their offensive firepower combined with Flaherty’s strikeout ability against a high-strikeout Pirates lineup, this matchup shapes up favorably for Los Angeles.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Mitch Keller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Mitch Keller has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 4.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Ke’Bryan Hayes has averaged 4.2 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 3rd percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Michael A. Taylor, Joey Bart).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-180/+135)Jack Flaherty has used his slider 6.6% more often this year (31.4%) than he did last season (24.8%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)Gavin Lux is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Los Angeles Dodgers batters as a group grade out 6th- in the league for power this year when using their 9.2% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+8.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 82 games (+14.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)Gavin Lux has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 19 games (+14.60 Units / 77% ROI)