Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Orioles vs Rockies – Sunday September 1, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on September 1, 2024, both teams come into the matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Rockies sit at 51-86, struggling through a dismal season, while the Orioles boast a strong 78-59 record, currently positioned well in the playoff race. This game marks the third in a series where the Rockies surprisingly claimed victory yesterday, defeating the Orioles 7-5 despite being underdogs.

On the mound, the Rockies will send Ty Blach to the hill. Blach has had a tough year, with a 3-6 record and a troubling ERA of 6.36. His last outing was particularly disastrous, where he lasted just two innings, allowing six earned runs. However, his xFIP of 4.94 suggests he may have been a bit unlucky this season, which could mean a potential turnaround is on the horizon. Blach projects to pitch only 4.2 innings today, allowing an average of 3.5 earned runs, and faces an Orioles lineup that ranks 5th in MLB offense, making this a challenging task.

Opposing him is Zach Eflin, who has been solid this season with a 9-7 record and a 3.72 ERA. Eflin’s advanced metrics place him as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB, a testament to his effectiveness. He pitched exceptionally well in his last start, going six innings with only one earned run allowed. His projections for today’s game indicate he will likely pitch 4.4 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and 5.2 hits.

With the Rockies averaging 5.23 runs in projections and the Orioles expected to score around 7.05 runs, the matchup heavily favors Baltimore. The Rockies will need to find a way to capitalize on their offensive potential, especially with their best hitter, Brenton Doyle, performing well recently. As the game approaches, the Rockies will look to build on their unexpected win, while the Orioles aim to bounce back and assert their dominance in this interleague clash.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-185)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Cedric Mullins II is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Baltimore Orioles offense projects for the most runs of all teams on the slate today, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ty Blach – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Ty Blach has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 12.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brenton Doyle’s true offensive talent to be a .301, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .044 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .345 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Compared to their .313 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup considerably missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+160)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 49 games at home (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (-125)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 74 of their last 137 games (+18.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-140/+110)
  Eloy Jimenez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)