Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Mariners vs Astros – Monday September 23, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on September 23, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, both teams find themselves in a crucial American League West matchup. The Astros, with an 85-71 record, are having an above-average season and are looking to solidify their playoff position. Meanwhile, the Mariners, sitting at 80-76, are having an average season and still cling to postseason hopes.

The Astros recently dropped a high-scoring affair against the Angels, losing 9-8, while the Mariners suffered a close 6-5 defeat to the Rangers. With both teams hungry for a win, the stakes are high.

Houston will send Hunter Brown to the mound. Brown, with a solid 3.57 ERA and ranking as the 34th-best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, looks to bounce back from a previous outing where he went six innings, allowing two earned runs. Despite projections indicating he might struggle with hits and walks, Brown’s ability to limit earned runs and rack up strikeouts remains key for the Astros.

On the other side, the Mariners will counter with Bryce Miller, who boasts a stellar 3.06 ERA but ranks lower at 60th in the same Power Rankings, suggesting a discrepancy between his performance and underlying metrics like xFIP. Projections show potential struggles with hits and walks, but Miller’s recent performance of six strong innings with eight strikeouts signals a pitcher capable of surprising.

Offensively, the Astros hold a significant edge, ranking 9th-best in overall performance and 3rd in batting average, compared to the Mariners’ 22nd-best offense and 29th in average. Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodriguez have been standout performers for their respective teams recently, adding firepower to the lineup.

With the Astros’ bullpen ranking 5th compared to the Mariners’ 23rd, and the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, giving Houston a higher win probability than the betting market suggests, the Astros appear poised to leverage their strengths. For bettors, there seems to be value in backing Houston in a game poised for a tightly contested outcome.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Bryce Miller’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (39.8% vs. 33.9% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Julio Rodriguez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph ranks in the 85th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Kyle Tucker’s true offensive skill to be a .372, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .048 difference between that mark and his actual .420 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 150 games (+14.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 64 away games (+20.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 80% ROI)