Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Mariners vs Astros – Monday September 23, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park on September 23, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League West matchup. The Astros, with a solid 85-71 record, are looking to strengthen their playoff position, while the Mariners, sitting at 80-76, aim to keep their postseason hopes alive. This series opener features two promising right-handed pitchers, with Hunter Brown taking the mound for the Astros against Bryce Miller for the Mariners.

Brown, currently ranked 36th among approximately 350 starting pitchers, boasts an ERA of 3.57 and has notched an 11-8 record over 29 starts this season. While his projected strikeout count of 6.1 is impressive, he might struggle with control, as projections suggest he’ll allow 4.6 hits and 1.8 walks. Meanwhile, Miller, ranked 60th, has delivered a strong season with an 11-8 record and a stellar 3.06 ERA. However, his xFIP of 3.82 indicates he’s been somewhat fortunate, suggesting potential regression. Miller projects to be less effective today, with a below-average strikeout projection of 4.4 and an anticipated 5.1 hits allowed.

Offensively, the Astros hold the edge with the 9th-best lineup in MLB, excelling in batting average, ranking 3rd. However, their power numbers, while decent, are not overwhelming at 11th in home runs. Kyle Tucker has been pivotal, hitting .524 with a 1.487 OPS over the last week. On the other hand, the Mariners bring the 22nd-ranked offense, with Julio Rodriguez leading the charge, boasting a .433 average and 1.218 OPS in the past week.

The Astros, with a superior bullpen ranked 6th compared to the Mariners’ 23rd, are favored with a moneyline of -150, translating to a 58% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests a slightly closer contest with a 55% win probability for Houston, highlighting the potential for a tightly fought game. The Astros’ projected run total of 4.47 slightly edges out the Mariners’ 4.28, setting the stage for a competitive clash.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Bryce Miller’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (39.8% vs. 33.9% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Luke Raley has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.8-mph average to last year’s 94.7-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph ranks in the 85th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under Total Bases
  Seattle’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Yordan Alvarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 150 games (+14.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 64 away games (+20.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-155/+120)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI)