Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Giants vs Dodgers – Wednesday July 24, 2024

San Francisco Giants

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants are set to face off on July 24, 2024, in the third game of their series at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, with a record of 61-41, are having a stellar season and currently lead the National League West. In contrast, the Giants, who sit at 48-54, are experiencing a below-average season and are not contending for a playoff spot.

Yesterday’s game saw the Dodgers secure a 5-2 victory over the Giants. This win continued their dominance in this series and further showcased their superiority. Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers’ elite right-handed pitcher, will take the mound against the Giants. Glasnow, ranked as the #6 best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts a commendable 3.47 ERA and is expected to improve, given his 2.50 xFIP.

Glasnow’s season stats include an 8-5 record over 18 starts, with an impressive strikeout rate and a high-groundball rate (48%). However, he has struggled with control at times, projecting to pitch 4.5 innings on average today while allowing 1.3 walks. His last outing, where he allowed five earned runs, was an anomaly for an otherwise top-tier performer.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Robbie Ray. Ray’s recent struggles in his abbreviated start on March 31, 2023, where he allowed three earned runs over three innings, highlight his inconsistencies. Ray, a left-hander, is considered a subpar pitcher by MLB standards and projects to allow 3.2 earned runs while striking out 5.7 batters on average today.

The Dodgers’ offense is a powerhouse, ranking 1st in MLB and featuring stars like Shohei Ohtani, who leads the team with a .314 batting average and 30 home runs. Comparatively, the Giants’ offense ranks 15th and struggles with power, evidenced by their #25 ranking in team home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 66% chance to win today, suggesting their dominance. With a potent offense and Glasnow’s elite pitching, the Dodgers are well-positioned to continue their winning streak against the Giants.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 7 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Robbie Ray will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Jorge Soler has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 89.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The San Francisco Giants have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Chapman, Mike Yastrzemski, Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Tyler Glasnow’s 2555-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 98th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Chris Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Chris Taylor has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .164 BA is a fair amount lower than his .206 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Los Angeles’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #4 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 53% ROI)