Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Dodgers vs Reds – Monday July 28, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 28, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. Both teams are coming off contrasting performances, with the Reds securing a narrow 2-1 victory yesterday, while the Dodgers fell short, losing 4-3. The series opener presents an intriguing battle, particularly given the playoff implications for both squads.

Cincinnati enters this game with a respectable record of 56-50, showcasing an above-average season, while the Dodgers are in a strong position at 61-45, boasting one of the league’s best records. The Reds will send Chase Burns to the mound, who, despite being ranked 36th among MLB starting pitchers, has struggled this season with a 0-2 record and a troubling 6.65 ERA. However, the projections suggest he might outperform his numbers today, as his xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky thus far.

In contrast, Los Angeles counters with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, an elite pitcher ranked 6th in MLB, who holds an impressive 2.55 ERA. Yamamoto has been a key contributor to the Dodgers’ success, but his recent performance showed a bit of vulnerability, allowing 1 earned run over 5 innings in his last outing.

Offensively, the Reds rank 14th in the league, while the Dodgers’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 2nd overall and 3rd in batting average. Cincinnati’s best hitter has been hot lately, batting .429 over the past week, which could be pivotal against a powerful Dodgers lineup that has hit 161 home runs this season.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs, expect a competitive atmosphere at Great American Ball Park. The Reds are currently an underdog with a moneyline of +125, but with a solid performance from their offense and a potential bounce-back from Burns, they might just pull off an upset against the favored Dodgers, who hold a moneyline of -145.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Shohei Ohtani has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.9-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 94.8-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Freddie Freeman has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns will “start” for Cincinnati Reds in today’s matchup but will be treated as more of an opener and may not last more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Los Angeles’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Spencer Steer, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Cincinnati Reds (25.4% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the most strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 99 games (+16.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI)
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+7.85 Units / 16% ROI)