Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Athletics vs Orioles – Saturday August 9, 2025

Athletics

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to take on the Oakland Athletics on August 9, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling this season, with records of 53-63 and 51-67, respectively. While the Orioles sit in the lower half of the American League standings, they recently secured a narrow victory over the Athletics, winning 3-2 in their last meeting.

On the mound for the Orioles will be Brandon Young, who has had a rough season with a 0-5 record and an ERA of 5.88, ranking him as the 133rd best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his struggles, the projections suggest he may have been a bit unlucky, as his xFIP of 4.33 indicates he could potentially perform better. Young’s average of 5.0 innings pitched today is typical, but he may face challenges given his tendency to allow 5.1 hits and 1.3 walks on average—both of which are concerning numbers.

Jack Perkins will take the hill for the Athletics. Although his ERA of 3.97 is solid, reflecting a 53rd ranking among MLB starters, he has also been prone to walks (10.6 BB% this year). This matchup could favor Perkins against an Orioles offense that is among the least patient in the league, as they rank 3rd in fewest walks drawn.

The Orioles’ offense, ranked 21st overall, has struggled for consistency, while the Athletics boast a 7th best ranking in offensive output. However, both bullpens have been underwhelming, with the Orioles ranked 27th and the Athletics 28th.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs and the Orioles holding a slight edge in moneyline at -115, this matchup promises to be closely contested. Fans will want to keep an eye on how Young and Perkins perform, particularly given their contrasting seasons and the implications for both teams moving forward.

Athletics Insights

• Jack Perkins – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jackson Perkins is projected to throw 75 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nicholas Kurtz’s true offensive ability to be a .345, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .084 gap between that figure and his actual .429 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The Athletics have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Brandon Young has been unlucky this year, putting up a 5.88 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.44 — a 1.44 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  In the past 14 days, Jackson Holliday’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 98 games (+15.23 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 42 games (+6.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Nick Kurtz has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 43% ROI)