Learn About Padres vs Nationals Picks and Betting Trends – Thursday July 25, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres clash at Nationals Park on July 25, 2024, for the third game of their series. The Nationals, struggling with a 47-55 record, lost heavily to the Padres yesterday, 12-3. Meanwhile, the Padres, boasting a 54-50 record, are having an above-average season and sit in a better position.

On the mound, Washington will start Patrick Corbin, a lefty who has had a tough season, recording a 2-9 Win/Loss record and a 5.35 ERA. Despite his struggles, his 4.28 xFIP suggests some bad luck, indicating potential for better performances ahead. However, Corbin’s projections for today are less promising, with an average of 5.3 innings pitched, 3.1 earned runs allowed, 3.1 strikeouts, 6.2 hits, and 1.6 walks. Facing a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in MLB in batting average and 10th in home runs, Corbin could be in for a challenging outing.

Dylan Cease will take the mound for San Diego. The right-handed pitcher, ranked 13th among all MLB starters, has a 9-8 Win/Loss record and a solid 3.76 ERA. His 3.14 xFIP suggests he’s been slightly unlucky as well. Cease’s projections are favorable: 5.8 innings pitched, 2.4 earned runs allowed, 6.2 strikeouts, 5.1 hits, and 1.9 walks. Facing a Nationals offense that ranks 26th overall and 29th in home runs, Cease should have the upper hand.

Offensively, the Nationals’ best hitter, CJ Abrams, has been reliable with a .262 batting average and 16 stolen bases. Recently, Juan Yepez has been a bright spot, posting a .350 average and 1.100 OPS over the last week. On the Padres’ side, Jurickson Profar stands out with a .300 batting average and 16 home runs. Kyle Higashioka has also been hot, hitting .333 with a 1.042 OPS over the past week.

In the bullpen battle, Washington’s relievers rank 29th, while San Diego’s are 11th, giving the Padres a significant advantage in late-game situations. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Padres are projected to win with a 60% probability, while the Nationals’ chances stand at 40%. Betting odds reflect similar sentiments, with San Diego favored at -160 and Washington as underdogs at +140. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations of a high-scoring affair.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+145)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Dylan Cease has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 10.0 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ha-Seong Kim – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Ha-seong Kim has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.2% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the San Diego Padres will tally 5.31 runs on average in this matchup: the 2nd-most of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Patrick Corbin’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (54.5% vs. 41.5% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.9-mph average last season has decreased to 86.8-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+135)
  The Washington Nationals projected batting order profiles as the 3rd-worst of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 92 games (+7.60 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.40 Units / 35% ROI)