Latest Player Stats for Reds vs Guardians – Wednesday September 25, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field on September 25, 2024, both teams face different trajectories this season. The Guardians, with a solid 91-67 record, are enjoying a great season and are well-positioned for a playoff push. Meanwhile, the Reds, at 76-82, have struggled and are having a below-average season.

In the first game of this series, the Guardians showcased their prowess with a decisive victory over the Reds. This momentum, coupled with their strong season performance, gives them a significant edge heading into this matchup.

The Guardians will send Andrew Walters to the mound. Walters, primarily a bullpen arm, has yet to start a game this season but boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA across seven relief appearances. However, his 5.19 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate and could face challenges as a starter. On the other side, the Reds will counter with Jakob Junis. Despite his respectable 2.61 ERA, Junis’ 3.89 xFIP indicates he’s also been riding some luck this year.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 16th overall, with notable strength in home runs (12th) and stolen bases (5th). Meanwhile, the Reds’ lineup ranks 18th, with a significant strength in stolen bases, ranking 2nd. Jonathan India has been a bright spot for Cincinnati, hitting .300 with a .967 OPS over the past week. Cleveland’s Kyle Manzardo has been even hotter, boasting a .385 average and a 1.313 OPS in the same span.

The Guardians are the favorites, with an implied win probability of 57%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 65% chance, suggesting value in backing Cleveland. With their offensive firepower and strong bullpen, the Guardians are poised to take another step toward solidifying their playoff position.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Jakob Junis – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Recording 59 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Jakob Junis places in the 1st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Spencer Steer has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 6.4% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Noelvi Marte hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Andrew Walters will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Brayan Rocchio has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.4-mph dropping to 79-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Cleveland Guardians with a 19.8% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 games (+11.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 81 of their last 142 games (+12.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Jake Fraley has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 24% ROI)