Latest Player Stats for Reds vs Astros – Sunday May 11, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Houston Astros

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the Houston Astros on May 11, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack with records of 20-21 and 19-19, respectively. This matchup is crucial for both squads looking to gain momentum as they navigate through an average season. The Astros are currently viewed as slight favorites with a moneyline of -150, suggesting a win probability of 58%.

In their most recent game, the Astros fell to the Reds, which adds an extra layer of urgency for Houston to bounce back. The Astros will send Ronel Blanco to the mound, who has had a challenging season thus far with a 2-3 record and a below-average ERA of 4.98. However, advanced projections indicate that Blanco may have been unlucky, as his xERA sits at 3.47, suggesting he could improve moving forward. His high walk rate of 11.0% could be problematic against a Reds offense that ranks 4th in the league in drawing walks.

On the other side, the Reds will counter with Chase Petty, who has struggled in his limited appearances, posting a horrendous ERA of 34.71. Petty’s low strikeout rate of 18.8% could be a disadvantage against a disciplined Astros lineup that strikes out the least in MLB.

Offensively, the Reds have been more productive, ranking 13th in the league, while the Astros sit at 19th. Houston’s struggles with power are evident as they rank 25th in home runs, which could limit their scoring potential.

With the game’s total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should consider the Astros’ implied team total of 4.62 runs, which reflects confidence in their ability to rebound offensively against a struggling pitcher like Petty.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Petty – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  With 8 bats of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Chase Petty ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Austin Hays has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year’s 91.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Ronel Blanco has put up a 14.5% Swinging Strike rate this year, ranking in the 96th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Extreme groundball batters like Victor Caratini generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Chase Petty.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Houston’s 88.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the game: #30 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.95 Units / 40% ROI)