Latest Player Stats for Red Sox vs Rangers – Saturday August 3, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers face off against the Boston Red Sox on August 3, 2024, both teams look to secure a vital win in this American League matchup. The Rangers are currently struggling with a record of 52-58, sitting further behind in the playoff picture compared to the Red Sox, who boast a solid 58-50 record. In their last encounter on August 2, the Rangers fell to the Red Sox with a score of 11-6, marking a frustrating yet significant loss as they seek to turn their season around.

The matchup features two contrasting pitchers: Cody Bradford for the Rangers and Tanner Houck for the Red Sox. Bradford, ranked as the 96th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has had a lucky run this season with a perfect 3-0 record and a solid 3.38 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest he may regress, as indicated by his 4.26 xFIP. Bradford is projected to pitch only 3.8 innings today, which raises concerns about his effectiveness.

On the other hand, Tanner Houck, who ranks 38th among pitchers, brings a more robust resume to the mound with an impressive 2.79 ERA this year. Although he allowed 3 earned runs in his last start, he is expected to go deeper into the game, projecting an average of 5.8 innings pitched today.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 23rd in the league, struggling to find consistency, while the Red Sox are firing on all cylinders, sitting 3rd overall. With key players like Marcus Semien for the Rangers and Jarren Duran for the Red Sox performing well, the game should be an exciting contest.

Interestingly, projections favor the Rangers slightly as they look to bounce back, showing a potential edge that suggests they might outperform expectations. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be closely contested and could go either way.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Tanner Houck is an extreme groundball pitcher (51% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Globe Life Field — the #6 HR venue in MLB — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Masataka Yoshida – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Masataka Yoshida is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Texas (#3-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected offense today (.318 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .330 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Cody Bradford – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Because of his large reverse platoon split, Cody Bradford should be in good shape squaring off against 6 batters in the projected lineup who bat from the other side in this outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Marcus Semien has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+9.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 49 away games (+11.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+11.95 Units / 25% ROI)