Latest Player Stats for Rangers vs Yankees – Wednesday May 21, 2025

Texas Rangers

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New York Yankees

On May 21, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Texas Rangers at Yankee Stadium for the second game of their series. The Yankees are enjoying a strong season, currently sitting atop the American League East with a record of 28-19, while the Rangers are in the middle of the pack at 25-24 in the American League West. Both teams faced off yesterday, with the Yankees notching a 5-2 victory, showcasing their potent offense.

New York boasts the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their league-leading home run total of 81. This power could pose a significant threat to Jacob deGrom, the Rangers’ projected starter, who is a flyball pitcher. If the Yankees can capitalize on deGrom’s tendency to allow balls in the air, they may turn those fly balls into extra-base hits. However, deGrom also stands as one of the league’s elite pitchers, ranked 11th among starters, with a stellar ERA of 2.29 and a solid 5.5% walk rate.

Ryan Yarbrough, the Yankees’ expected starter, has had a rocky season thus far, ranking 197th among pitchers with a mediocre ERA of 3.70. He has a high walk rate of 9.8% and is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs over 4.5 innings, which might limit New York’s lead. The Yankees’ bullpen ranks 3rd overall in MLB, giving them an edge if they can hand the ball over to their relievers with a lead.

Although the Rangers have a below-average offense, ranking 26th in the league, they do have some potential with their 16th place ranking in home runs. The expected close match-up, paired with the low game total of 7.5 runs, suggests a tight contest, potentially favoring the Yankees given their recent form and overall talent level.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Jacob deGrom is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue among all major league parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Kyle Higashioka pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Ryan Yarbrough – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  The Texas Rangers have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Ryan Yarbrough today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Ben Rice has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.3-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 94.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected batting order today (.335 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .353 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+6.67 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Josh Jung has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)