Latest Player Stats for Phillies vs Marlins – Friday September 6, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

As the Philadelphia Phillies visit LoanDepot Park to face the Miami Marlins on September 6, 2024, the stakes are clear. The Phillies, with a strong record of 84-56, are in contention for a playoff spot, while the Marlins sit at a disappointing 52-88, having been eliminated from division contention. The two teams squared off just yesterday, with the Phillies securing a 5-2 victory, further solidifying their position in the standings.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Austin Kitchen, who has struggled this season, posting a 9.00 ERA and ranking as the 242nd best starting pitcher in MLB. He has made only three appearances this year, all out of the bullpen, and projects to pitch a mere 3.7 innings today while allowing 2.1 earned runs. Kitchen’s high-groundball rate could provide a glimmer of hope against a powerful Phillies offense that has hit 124 home runs this season, ranking 6th in MLB.

In contrast, Zack Wheeler takes the hill for Philadelphia, boasting a stellar 2.63 ERA and ranking as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB. Wheeler’s recent performance has been exceptional, highlighted by a complete game shutout on August 31, where he allowed no earned runs and struck out seven batters. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings today, allowing 2.1 earned runs, and his ability to generate strikeouts will be crucial against a Marlins lineup that ranks 29th in offensive production.

Given the current projections, the Phillies are favored to win, with a projected total of 5.35 runs compared to the Marlins’ lowly 3.43 runs. With the Marlins’ offense struggling and their bullpen ranked 27th in MLB, the odds favor the Phillies to continue their winning ways in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Zack Wheeler’s 2431-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 82nd percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme groundball batters like Johan Rojas tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Austin Kitchen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Austin Kitchen – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Austin Kitchen to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Otto Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Kyle Stowers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 51 games at home (+18.65 Units / 33% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  J.T. Realmuto has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 100% ROI)