Seattle Mariners
Detroit Tigers
(-110/-110)+115
As the Seattle Mariners visit Comerica Park on August 15, 2024, in the third game of their series against the Detroit Tigers, both teams are looking to shake off subpar performances. In yesterday’s matchup, the Tigers edged the Mariners 3-2, securing a much-needed victory that improved their record to 59-63, while the Mariners fell to 63-59. This game is crucial as both teams aim to gain momentum for the remainder of the season.
The Mariners are projected to start Bryce Miller, who has been impressive with a 3.46 ERA this year and a 9-7 record over 23 starts. He had a strong outing in his last game, pitching six innings without allowing any earned runs. This performance aligns with the projections indicating a solid likelihood of him holding down the Tigers’ lackluster offense, which ranks 26th in MLB. Furthermore, Miller is backed by the Mariners, who boast a stronger overall team than their record suggests.
On the other hand, the Tigers will turn to Alex Faedo, who has struggled to find consistency. Although he holds a commendable 3.62 ERA, his recent performance has raised concerns as he projects to pitch only 1.4 innings with a high likelihood of allowing earned runs. The Tigers’ offense, ranked 26th overall, has been ineffective, especially since they are up against a capable pitcher like Miller.
Despite their recent win, projections still favor the Mariners slightly in this matchup, indicating a more favorable outcome based on their offense’s potential to capitalize on Detroit’s pitching challenges. With the game’s total set at 8.5 runs, expect a closely contested battle that could hinge on the effectiveness of Miller against a struggling Tigers lineup.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryce Miller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Bryce Miller has recorded 17.3 outs per start this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Victor Robles – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Victor Robles has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 10.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 24.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)Given the 1.21 discrepancy between Alex Faedo’s 3.62 ERA and his 4.83 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors this year and figures to negatively regress in future games.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Justyn-Henry Malloy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Justyn-Henry Malloy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Detroit Tigers batters as a unit rank in the cellar of the majors this year ( 9th-worst) as it relates to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-140)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+10.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 away games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)