Latest Player Stats for Cubs vs Dodgers – Friday April 11, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers, currently sitting atop the National League West with a 10-4 record, are set to face the Chicago Cubs at Dodger Stadium on April 11, 2025. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Cubs holding a 9-6 record and ranking 6th in offensive performance this year. The Dodgers enter this matchup as significant favorites, boasting a potent offense that ranks 1st in home runs this season.

In their most recent contests, the Dodgers narrowly defeated the Cubs 6-5, while the Cubs fell to their opponents with a 6-2 loss. Notably, Dodgers’ starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto is projected to pitch well, despite a slightly elevated xFIP of 2.48 compared to his excellent ERA of 1.69. Yamamoto has shown promise this season, striking out an average of 6.0 batters per game, although he struggles with control, indicated by a high walk rate of 9.5%. The Cubs’ patience at the plate could play to their advantage against him.

Matthew Boyd, on the other hand, is coming off a solid performance himself, having pitched six innings without allowing any earned runs in his last start. However, his projections suggest he may struggle in this matchup, as he has a concerning xFIP of 4.01, highlighting potential regression.

The projections indicate a tough day ahead for the Cubs, particularly against a Dodgers bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB. With the Dodgers’ offense leading in power and the Cubs’ bullpen ranked 24th, this could be a challenging game for Chicago. The total for the game is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tight contest, but given the current odds, the Dodgers’ implied team total stands at a promising 4.39 runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  Matthew Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.1-mph dropping to 77.4-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s change-up percentage has increased by 6.3% from last year to this one (24.1% to 30.4%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under Total Bases
  Batters such as Miguel Rojas with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Matthew Boyd who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.10 Units / 41% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-250)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)