Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)-130
The Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 9, 2025, at Fenway Park for the third game of their series. Currently, the Red Sox sit at .500 with a 6-6 record, while the Blue Jays are off to a solid start at 7-5. The stakes are high, as both teams look to gain momentum in the competitive American League East.
In their previous matchup, the Red Sox fell to the Blue Jays, which adds extra pressure for Boston to bounce back at home. Tanner Houck is set to take the mound for the Red Sox, bringing with him a mixed bag of performance this season. Although he ranks as the 44th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, his 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 6.52 raise concerns. However, his projected 2.4 earned runs allowed and average of 6.0 innings pitched today suggest he may be due for a turnaround.
On the other side, Kevin Gausman will start for the Blue Jays. While he has an average win-loss record of 1-1 and a respectable ERA of 3.97, projections indicate he may struggle against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 6th in MLB offense and boasts the 4th best batting average. Gausman’s low strikeout rate could be a disadvantage against a high-strikeout Red Sox offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB.
With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup has the potential to be a close contest. The Red Sox’s current moneyline is -125, reflecting their status as slight favorites, while the Blue Jays sit at +105. Both teams have shown they can put runs on the board, but the Red Sox’s offense and the potential for Houck to exceed expectations could give them the edge they need to secure a victory.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Kevin Gausman’s slider usage has risen by 6.8% from last year to this one (8.4% to 15.2%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Extreme groundball bats like Anthony Santander tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Tanner Houck – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Tanner Houck struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his previous outing and notched 2 Ks.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-265)Jarren Duran’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 47.5% to 55.2%.Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
- The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Triston Casas, Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)Ernie Clement has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)