Injury Report for Nationals vs Cubs – Saturday, September 21st, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals prepare to face off at Wrigley Field on September 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions this season. The Cubs, with a record of 79-75, are navigating an average season but remain in the hunt for a playoff spot. On the other hand, the Nationals, sitting at 68-86, have struggled throughout the year and are not in playoff contention.

In their last matchup on September 20, the Cubs emerged victorious with a 3-1 win over the Nationals, thanks to a solid performance that saw them as favorites with a -160 Moneyline. The Cubs’ offense, ranked 13th in MLB, has been bolstered by Ian Happ, who has been their standout hitter this season. Meanwhile, the Nationals have leaned on CJ Abrams, but their 23rd-ranked offense has often struggled, particularly in the power department, ranking 29th in home runs.

On the mound, the Cubs will start Kyle Hendricks, who has had a challenging season with a 6.25 ERA but has shown potential for improvement given his 4.50 xFIP. Hendricks projects to pitch 5.6 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs on average today. Meanwhile, the Nationals will counter with MacKenzie Gore, an average pitcher with a 4.17 ERA and a 3.62 FIP, suggesting some bad luck. Gore projects to pitch 5.0 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs on average today.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 58% projected win probability, higher than their implied probability of 55% according to the current -135 Moneyline. The Cubs are projected to score 4.83 runs on average, while the Nationals are expected to tally 4.29 runs. As both teams continue their series, the Cubs will aim to leverage their home advantage and stronger offensive lineup to secure another win against the struggling Nationals.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  MacKenzie Gore’s fastball velocity has jumped 1 mph this year (95.4 mph) over where it was last year (94.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Joey Gallo is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Joey Gallo pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Generating 14.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Kyle Hendricks falls in the 7th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Cody Bellinger is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Washington (#2-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Patrick Wisdom, Pete Crow-Armstrong).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games at home (+12.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 49 games (+53.90 Units / 110% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 49 games (+10.55 Units / 21% ROI)