Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-110/-110)-110
As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 1, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for postseason positioning. The Dodgers currently hold a record of 82-54 and are looking to maintain their strong performance, while the Diamondbacks, at 76-60, aim to close the gap in the National League West. The stakes are high in this pivotal matchup, especially after the Diamondbacks won the previous game in this series.
Brandon Pfaadt is projected to take the mound for Arizona, bringing a solid season with him. Despite an average ERA of 4.31, his advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit unlucky, with a 3.69 xFIP indicating he may have room for improvement moving forward. Pfaadt’s ability to limit walks will be crucial against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for drawing walks. Conversely, Justin Wrobleski gets the nod for Los Angeles, but he’s struggled this season, with projections indicating he may be in for a rough outing.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, showcasing remarkable depth and consistency. Corbin Carroll has emerged as a standout, leading the team with impressive recent stats, including 11 RBIs and 5 home runs over the last week. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ offense, ranked 3rd overall, is spearheaded by Shohei Ohtani, who has also been productive lately.
With the game total currently set at 9.0 runs, it suggests a competitive matchup. The projections lean slightly in favor of the Dodgers, but with Arizona’s potent offense and Pfaadt’s potential for a bounce-back performance, this game could easily tilt in the Diamondbacks’ favor.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)Compared to average, Justin Wrobleski has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -11.1 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Max Muncy is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Brandon Pfaadt’s sinker usage has increased by 12.3% from last season to this one (9.9% to 22.2%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Corbin Carroll has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 89-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.306 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .332 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 94 games (+21.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 36 games (+13.00 Units / 36% ROI)