Injury Report for Blue Jays vs Rays – Sunday, September 22nd, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

It’s the final matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field on September 22, 2024. Both teams are struggling in the American League East, with the Rays holding a slightly better 77-78 record, while the Blue Jays sit at 73-82. Despite Tampa Bay being favored with a -145 moneyline, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Toronto a 49% win probability, 6% higher than the betting market suggests, pointing to potential value for bettors eyeing the underdog.

The Rays are sending Shane Baz to the mound, who has been serviceable with a 3-3 record and a stellar 3.21 ERA, despite his peripheral numbers suggesting some luck. On the other side, the Blue Jays counter with Ryan Burr, who is expected to have a short stint, average just 1.8 innings. His above-average ability to limit earned runs could be a key factor, particularly against a Tampa Bay offense ranked 28th overall in MLB and struggling in both average and power metrics. However, Burr’s high projected walk and hit rates might be the Achilles heel for Toronto.

Both teams displayed a competitive edge in their last game where the Rays edged out the Blue Jays with a narrow 3-2 victory. Tampa Bay’s Jonathan Aranda has been a bright spot recently, posting a .333 batting average over the past week, while Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains hot with a .417 average and .950 OPS, standing out as their offensive linchpin.

With the Rays boasting the 3rd-best bullpen against Toronto’s 25th-ranked group, relief pitching could swing the scales late in this encounter. While the Rays have a statistical edge and home-field advantage, the Blue Jays’ slight edge in projection could make this a closely contested game worth watching.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Nathan Lukes has had a particularly strong THE BAT X Spray Score over the last 7 days, which measures a hitter’s ability to hit the ball to all fields.
  Explain: Hitters who can spray the ball around the field tend to have good bat control and a strong ability to generate hits.
• Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Toronto Blue Jays projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup significantly weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Among all starters, Shane Baz’s fastball velocity of 95 mph ranks in the 86th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Junior Caminero is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Toronto (#3-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 91 of their last 152 games (+25.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 away games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Jose Caballero has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.15 Units / 33% ROI)