Injury Report for Blue Jays vs Braves – Saturday, September 7th, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves host the Toronto Blue Jays at Truist Park on September 7, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams. The Braves are currently 77-64, enjoying an above-average season, while the Blue Jays sit at 67-75, struggling with a below-average record. In their previous game, the Braves bested the Blue Jays 3-1, marking a solid win for the Braves, who are looking to build momentum.

Projected starters Spencer Schwellenbach and Jose Berrios present an intriguing contrast. Schwellenbach, ranked 22nd among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats, has demonstrated potential despite a 5-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.69. His 3.07 xERA suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, implying he could outperform his current numbers. However, Schwellenbach faces a Blue Jays offense that ranks 4th in fewest strikeouts, creating a challenging dynamic as his strikeout ability may not be fully capitalized against this disciplined lineup.

On the other hand, Berrios, while having a decent season with a 14-9 record and a 3.59 ERA, is projected to struggle against the Braves’ offense, which ranks 13th overall. The Braves have the advantage of a powerful lineup, led by Marcell Ozuna, who has been a standout hitter this season with 37 home runs and a .309 batting average.

Given the projections, the Braves are favored with a high implied team total of 4.39 runs, while the Blue Jays are projected to struggle with an implied total of only 3.61 runs. The Braves look to capitalize on their recent success and the favorable matchup against Berrios, aiming to take command in this interleague series.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Jose Berrios’s 2159-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 25th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Alejandro Kirk has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 9.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly deflated relative to his 17.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Recording 17.4 outs per outing this year on average, Spencer Schwellenbach ranks in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Ramon Laureano has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 135 games (+32.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+10.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+16.50 Units / 27% ROI)