Injuries Update for Red Sox vs Dodgers – July 20, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox prepare to face off on July 20, 2024, both teams are eyeing a crucial win in this interleague matchup at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, holding a record of 56-41, are having a stellar season, while the Red Sox, with a record of 53-42, are also performing well.

The Dodgers will send left-handed pitcher Justin Wrobleski to the mound. Wrobleski has struggled this season with a 6.30 ERA, but his 5.28 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and may improve. Despite being ranked 169th among starting pitchers by advanced stat Power Rankings, his matchup against a Red Sox lineup that strikes out frequently (#4 most in MLB) could play to his advantage.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with right-hander Brayan Bello. Bello, who has a 5.32 ERA this season, has a better xFIP of 3.71, indicating he’s also been unlucky. Ranked 76th among starting pitchers, Bello faces the daunting task of taming the Dodgers’ high-octane offense, ranked 1st overall. The Dodgers lead MLB in home runs and boast the 3rd-best team batting average, giving Bello a tough assignment. Interestingly, Bello’s groundball tendency (52 GB%) could mitigate the Dodgers’ power.

Offensively, the Dodgers have been on fire, with the best offense in MLB, while the Red Sox aren’t far behind, ranking 6th. The Dodgers have an implied team total of 4.81 runs for this game, reflecting their potent lineup, whereas the Red Sox have an implied team total of 4.19 runs.

In the betting markets, the Dodgers are favorites with a moneyline of -140, translating to a 56% implied win probability. Given the Dodgers’ home advantage, potent offense, and stronger bullpen, they appear well-positioned to take this game. However, with both starting pitchers having the potential for better performances, it could be a tighter contest than expected.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Brayan Bello’s 95.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 85th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Rafael Devers has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 37.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal higher than his 28.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Justin Wrobleski has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 14.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Over the last 7 days, Freddie Freeman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• James Outman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  James Outman pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+9.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)