Injuries Update for Phillies vs Nationals – September 28, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 28, 2024, at Nationals Park, the stakes are clear. The Nationals, with a 70-90 record, are not contending for the playoffs, while the Phillies, sporting a strong 94-66 record, are in the thick of the postseason race. This National League East matchup sees the Phillies as clear favorites, strengthened by their recent 5-2 victory over the Nationals in the series opener.

The pitching duel features Washington’s MacKenzie Gore against Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler. Gore, a lefty, has had a challenging season with a 4.04 ERA and a below-average ranking of 124th among MLB starters. Despite his struggles, Gore’s ability to limit walks could be a key factor against a Phillies lineup known for its power. Wheeler, on the other hand, is an elite right-hander, ranked 5th among starters, boasting an impressive 2.56 ERA. However, his xFIP of 3.36 suggests he’s been a bit fortunate this season.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 24th overall, with a glaring weakness in power, ranking 29th in home runs. Yet, they lead the league in stolen bases, which could be crucial against Wheeler’s low-walk rate. The Phillies, conversely, are a powerhouse, ranked 4th in both overall offense and batting average. Nick Castellanos has been on fire recently, with a .526 batting average and two home runs over the last week, adding to Philadelphia’s offensive threat.

The Nationals’ bullpen, ranked 28th, could face challenges late in the game, while the Phillies’ bullpen, though better at 21st, isn’t without its flaws. With the Phillies’ implied win probability at 65% and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, giving them a 64% chance, Philadelphia looks to extend their dominance in this series.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Zack Wheeler has used his change-up 6.8% more often this year (7.2%) than he did last season (0.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (20.1) provides evidence that Austin Hays has been unlucky this year with his 9.5 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  MacKenzie Gore’s 95.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1-mph rise from last year’s 94.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Over the past week, Juan Yepez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Jose Tena, Joey Gallo).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 43 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 63 games (+16.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-115/-115)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Walks Under in 24 of his last 41 games (+10.65 Units / 24% ROI)