Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
(-105/-115)+115
As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field on August 10, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League East showdown. The Orioles currently sit atop the division with a record of 69-48, while the Rays hover around .500 at 58-57. Yesterday, the Rays fell to the Orioles by a score of 4-1, marking their second straight loss to Baltimore in this series.
Projected to start for the Rays is Drew Rasmussen, who has yet to make a start this season, appearing only once out of the bullpen. Despite an impressive ERA of 0.00, his projections indicate he will struggle, averaging just 1.5 innings pitched and allowing 0.6 earned runs. In contrast, the Orioles will counter with Corbin Burnes, ranked 23rd among MLB starting pitchers and boasting a solid 2.63 ERA and a 12-4 record this season. Burnes has been a reliable arm, expected to pitch around 5.8 innings while allowing approximately 2.2 earned runs.
The Rays offense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 22nd overall with a poor home run output of just 97, while the Orioles’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 3rd in MLB and leading in home runs with 157. This disparity in offensive production poses a significant challenge for Tampa Bay, especially after their recent struggles against Baltimore.
Despite the Rays’ low implied team total of 3.53 runs, projections suggest they could score slightly more at 3.74 runs. With their strong bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, they may have a chance to keep the game competitive. However, they will need to find a way to capitalize on Burnes’s vulnerabilities to secure a win in this crucial matchup.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-135)The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of every team on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Cedric Mullins II’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.1-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 82.8-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Despite technically being the “starter” today, Drew Rasmussen may not pitch more than a couple framess considering he will function as more of an opener.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Yandy Diaz is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 60 of their last 100 games (+17.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 68 games (+15.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)Colton Cowser has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+8.10 Units / 34% ROI)