In-depth Player Analysis for Twins vs Marlins – Thursday July 03, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Miami Marlins

On July 3, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Minnesota Twins in the third game of their series at LoanDepot Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Marlins standing at 38-46 and the Twins at 41-45. In yesterday’s matchup, the Marlins fell to the Twins by a narrow 2-1 margin, continuing their below-average campaign.

Projected starters Eury Perez and David Festa both bring mixed results to the mound. Eury Perez, ranked 75th among MLB’s starting pitchers, has a 0-2 record this season with a troubling 6.19 ERA. However, his 5.32 xFIP suggests he might have been unlucky and could improve moving forward. On the other hand, David Festa, ranked 87th, holds a 2-2 record and a 5.40 ERA, but his 4.45 xFIP points to similar potential for better outcomes.

The Marlins offense has shown flashes of ability, ranking 10th in batting average, but they are hampered by a lack of power, sitting 26th in home runs. The projections indicate that this weakness could play into Festa’s favor, as he is a high-flyball pitcher facing a lineup that struggles with power. Although the Marlins’ bullpen has an unsightly ranking of 23rd, there’s hope that their bats could come alive, especially given their recent performance from their best hitter, who has been on fire with a .429 batting average over the past week.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, bettors might find value in considering the Marlins, who have an average implied team total of 3.90 runs and are looking to bounce back after last night’s defeat. Even though the Twins are favored, the Marlins could surprise if Perez manages to find his rhythm.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  David Festa has utilized his slider 5.3% less often this year (26.6%) than he did last season (31.9%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Typically, hitters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Eury Perez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Eury Perez’s 2655-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 100th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Eric Wagaman is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Derek Hill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+11.05 Units / 69% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 80 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
  Liam Hicks has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI)