In-depth Player Analysis for Twins vs Marlins – Thursday July 03, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on July 3, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their below-average seasons, with the Marlins sitting at 38-46 and the Twins at 41-45. This game marks the third matchup in their series, and the stakes feel heightened as both squads seek to gain momentum.

In their last game, the Marlins struggled against the Twins, who managed to secure a win. This adds pressure on the Marlins, who will rely on Eury Perez, projected to start. While Perez holds a Power Rankings position of 75th among MLB pitchers, his current season has not been kind, reflected in his 0-2 record and a troubling 6.19 ERA. However, his xFIP of 5.32 suggests he has been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement.

On the other side, the Twins will send David Festa to the mound. Festa’s season has seen him post a 2-2 record with a 5.40 ERA, ranking him 80th in the Power Rankings. His xFIP of 4.45 indicates he may also have room for better performance. Both pitchers are right-handed and project to pitch around five innings, but with the Marlins’ offense ranking 16th overall and struggling to convert fly balls into home runs, Festa could find an advantage.

The Marlins have shown a solid batting average, ranking 9th in the league, but their lack of power—ranking 26th in home runs—could be a significant factor. Meanwhile, the Twins, while averaging in the middle of the pack offensively, have the 28th worst stolen base record, indicating a lack of speed on the base paths.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, this matchup appears closely contested, and the Marlins’ current moneyline of +100 could offer value for bettors looking for an upset as they aim to bounce back from their previous defeat.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  David Festa has utilized his slider 5.3% less often this year (26.6%) than he did last season (31.9%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Typically, hitters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Eury Perez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Eury Perez’s 2655-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 100th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Eric Wagaman is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the Miami Marlins offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+11.05 Units / 69% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 80 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Eric Wagaman has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 46% ROI)