In-depth Player Analysis for Rockies vs Braves – Sunday June 15, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves host the Colorado Rockies on June 15, 2025, in the third game of their series. The Braves enter this matchup with a record of 31-38, having recently snapped a losing streak with a 4-1 victory over the Rockies on June 14. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling this season with a dismal 13-57 record, making them one of the worst teams in MLB.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Grant Holmes, a right-handed pitcher who ranks as the 118th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Holmes has had an average season, sporting a 3-5 record and a 4.07 ERA, while his 4.68 FIP suggests he might be due for some regression. His ability to strike out batters is elite, averaging 8.1 strikeouts per game. However, he has also struggled with walks, averaging 1.6 per game.

Conversely, the Rockies will counter with Austin Gomber, a left-handed pitcher who has been among the least effective in the league. Gomber’s projections indicate he will likely pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 3.4 earned runs with a concerning 1.5 walks per game. His struggles in both strikeouts and control could give the Braves’ offense, ranked 16th overall, an opportunity to capitalize.

Considering the Braves’ implied team total of 5.48 runs, the projections suggest they will have ample chances to score against Gomber. Despite their struggles this season, the Braves might find a rhythm against a Rockies team that ranks 29th in both batting average and overall offense. This combination of factors makes the Braves significant favorites in this matchup, and they will look to build on their recent success as they aim for a series win.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Austin Gomber’s 90.4-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 5th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Ryan McMahon has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season’s 92-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Hunter Goodman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Compared to the average hurler, Grant Holmes has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.8 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Extreme groundball batters like Ozzie Albies tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Austin Gomber.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-325)
  The Atlanta Braves projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 69 games (+14.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+110/-140)
  Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)