In-depth Player Analysis for Nationals vs Orioles – Wednesday August 14, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Washington Nationals on August 14, 2024, this Interleague matchup holds significance as the second game in their series. The Orioles boast a strong 70-50 record this season, ranking 2nd in MLB offensively, while the Nationals sit at 55-65, struggling with the 22nd best offense in the league.

In their previous game, the Orioles’ pitching performance was noteworthy, as they showcased resilience against a challenging opponent. Dean Kremer, projected to start for Baltimore, has had an inconsistent season with a 4-9 record and an average ERA of 4.70. However, his projections today suggest he could limit runs, allowing an average of only 2.3 earned runs with a favorable matchup against a Nationals lineup that has managed just 85 home runs, ranking 29th in MLB. Kremer’s high flyball rate could play to his advantage, as the Nationals lack the power to capitalize on those opportunities.

On the other hand, DJ Herz will take the mound for the Nationals. With a 2-4 record and a 4.41 ERA, Herz’s projections are less promising, as he is expected to pitch only 4.3 innings and may struggle against the Orioles’ powerful offense, which leads MLB with 157 home runs. The projections indicate that he could allow more earned runs than he strikes out, making it a tough day for the young lefty.

With the Orioles heavily favored, their offense’s strength against a struggling Nationals lineup offers a compelling betting angle. The current game total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair. Bettors might find value in the Orioles’ implied total of 5.09 runs, particularly given their recent form and the matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Washington Nationals Insights

• DJ Herz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, DJ Herz will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Alex Call has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .435 mark is inflated compared to his .317 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  James Wood hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Dean Kremer’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.3-mph drop off from last season’s 94.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
  Eloy Jimenez is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games (+14.60 Units / 28% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 away games (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)