Seattle Mariners
Athletics
(-110/-110)+120
On May 7, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Seattle Mariners at Sutter Health Park in a significant American League West matchup. The Athletics find themselves with a record of 20-17, showing an above-average performance this season, while the Mariners are 21-14, enjoying a great season thus far. Both teams faced off just yesterday, with the Mariners securing a victory over the Athletics by a score of 5-3, which has given Seattle a boost in momentum entering this game.
The Athletics are projected to start Gunnar Hoglund, a right-handed pitcher who has a solid ERA of 1.50 in his limited time this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he may not be as effective going forward with a FIP of 2.90, indicating he has been a bit lucky. His performance could be crucial as he faces a powerful Mariners offense that ranks 4th in the league in home runs, showcasing their ability to hit for power.
On the other side, the Mariners will counter with Bryan Woo, who has been exceptional with a 2.58 ERA and ranks as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB. Woo has a solid track record this year, boasting a 4-1 record over six starts. His ability to strike out batters will be tested against an Athletics offense that ranks 10th overall this season.
Despite their recent loss, the Athletics’ strong offensive stats, including ranking 7th in home runs, give them potential against a Mariners bullpen ranked 22nd. The game’s total is set at 9.5 runs, and with both offenses capable of producing, it could be a high-scoring affair. Although the Mariners enter as the favorites, the Athletics could capitalize on their home field advantage.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Bryan Woo is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue among all major league parks today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#3-worst on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- The Seattle Mariners have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the seasonExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Athletics Insights
- Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Miguel Andujar has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Athletics batters collectively rank 21st- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 92.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Moneyline (+120)The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+10.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Cal Raleigh has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+8.30 Units / 30% ROI)