In-depth Player Analysis for Cubs vs Marlins – Tuesday May 20, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Miami Marlins

On May 20, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Chicago Cubs at LoanDepot Park for the second game of their series. The Cubs are entering this matchup with a strong 28-20 record, while the Marlins sit at 19-27, struggling to find their rhythm this season. In their previous game, the Cubs secured a win, further solidifying their position among the top teams in the National League.

Projected starters for this contest are Ryan Weathers for the Marlins and Jameson Taillon for the Cubs. Weathers has had a solid start to the season, boasting an impressive ERA of 1.80 over just one start, but projections suggest he may be due for some regression. His flyball-heavy approach could be a concern against a powerful Cubs lineup that ranks 4th in MLB with 66 home runs this year. Meanwhile, Taillon’s ERA stands at 4.53, indicating an average performance, though he has been unlucky according to the projections, which suggest he might improve as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 4th in MLB, showcasing their ability to hit for power and generate runs. In contrast, the Marlins’ offense ranks 19th overall, with a notable deficiency in home runs, sitting at 21st in that category. While the Marlins have shown some potential with a decent batting average, they lack the firepower needed to consistently compete with a team like the Cubs.

With the Cubs favored at -150 and an implied team total of 4.60 runs, there’s a strong expectation for them to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a Marlins team that is still trying to find its footing. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair, but the Marlins’ struggles could limit their output.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Jameson Taillon is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 7 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Ryan Weathers faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Bats such as Jesus Sanchez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jameson Taillon who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games (+10.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-620)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+8.20 Units / 102% ROI)