How to Watch White Sox vs Padres – Saturday, September 21, 2024

Chicago White Sox

@

San Diego Padres

As September 21, 2024, approaches, the San Diego Padres find themselves in a comfortable position, having secured an impressive 88-66 record. With a strong likelihood of making a postseason run, they aim to continue their winning ways against the struggling Chicago White Sox. The Padres have demonstrated their prowess with the 5th-best offense in MLB, boasting the top team batting average and ranking 10th in home runs. Their robust offensive lineup is complemented by the 2nd-best bullpen, according to advanced Power Rankings.

In stark contrast, the White Sox have endured a dismal season with a 36-118 record. Their offense ranks dead last in multiple categories, including team batting average and home runs. The White Sox’s bullpen struggles mirror their offensive woes, sitting at 29th in MLB.

The Padres will send Martin Perez, a left-handed pitcher, to the mound. Despite a middling 4-5 record and an ERA of 4.36, Perez’s peripheral stats suggest some luck has been in play. His xERA of 5.36 indicates potential regression. Meanwhile, Chris Flexen takes the hill for Chicago. Flexen has had a challenging season, with a 2-14 record and a 5.09 ERA. His projections for this matchup are similarly bleak, with high hit and run allowances anticipated.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, views the Padres as clear favorites, assigning them a 67% chance of victory. This aligns closely with betting markets, which imply a 71% win probability for San Diego. The Padres are projected to score 5.38 runs on average, while the White Sox are expected to muster just 3.90 runs.

The Padres aim to capitalize on their offensive advantages and the White Sox’s pitching vulnerabilities. With a massive favorite status, San Diego looks poised to continue their march towards October baseball, while Chicago’s season winds down with little to celebrate.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chris Flexen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Chris Flexen’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (63.4% compared to 54.5% last year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Bryan Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Bryan Ramos has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Martin Perez’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (89.2 mph) has been considerably slower than than his seasonal rate (90.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 96.5-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-300)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 56 games (+14.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 away games (+7.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+390/-600)
  Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 47 games (+25.20 Units / 54% ROI)