How to Watch the White Sox vs Royals Game – Sunday July 21, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals and the Chicago White Sox are set to face off on July 21, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium for the third game in their series. The Royals have already won the first two games, including a dominant 6-1 victory yesterday. With Kansas City sitting comfortably at 54-45 and Chicago struggling at 27-73, this matchup might seem like a foregone conclusion. However, there are nuances worth considering, particularly for bettors.

Seth Lugo takes the mound for the Royals, bringing his solid 2.48 ERA and an impressive 11-4 win/loss record this season. Despite his excellent traditional stats, Lugo’s higher xFIP of 3.71 suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate, which might spell trouble against a desperate White Sox lineup. Lugo has had a roller-coaster season and got hammered in his last outing, allowing 5 earned runs over 5 innings. The Royals’ bullpen ranks as the 18th best, offering average support for Lugo.

On the other side, Drew Thorpe will start for the White Sox. Thorpe has a respectable 3-1 win/loss record and a 3.58 ERA over his 6 starts. Similar to Lugo, his high xFIP of 5.38 hints at luck-driven success. Thorpe faces a Royals offense that ranks 7th in stolen bases but only 16th overall. The key for Thorpe will be capitalizing on Kansas City’s low walk rate, as his own control issues could otherwise be a liability.

The Royals are favored heavily with a -220 moneyline, reflecting a 67% implied win probability. Meanwhile, the White Sox sit as underdogs at +190, with a 33% implied win probability. Interestingly, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, only gives Kansas City a 62% chance to win. This disparity suggests potential value in betting on the White Sox, especially for those looking to capitalize on public hesitance to back a struggling team.

With the Royals boasting the 11th best team batting average and the White Sox’s bullpen ranking dead last, Kansas City has the upper hand. However, given the projections, Chicago might be a sneaky underdog play.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Chicago White Sox will score 4 runs on average in this matchup: the 5th-least of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• The Kansas City Royals have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 46 away games (+6.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.00 Units / 21% ROI)