How to Watch the White Sox vs Padres Game – Friday September 20, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres, hosting the Chicago White Sox at Petco Park on September 20, 2024, are in the midst of a strong season with an 87-66 record. They remain in contention for a playoff spot, while the White Sox have struggled, sitting at 36-117 and well out of the race. The Padres are heavy favorites in this Interleague matchup, boasting a robust offense ranked 5th overall and a bullpen ranked 3rd, both significant advantages over their counterparts.

San Diego is coming off a 4-0 win against the Houston Astros on September 18, showcasing a potent performance. Joe Musgrove, who will take the mound for the Padres, ranks 41st among starting pitchers, indicating a solid reliability. Musgrove’s projected to throw 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.0 earned runs, which bodes well against the struggling White Sox lineup. However, his 4.23 ERA, slightly better than his 4.75 xERA, suggests some regression might be on the horizon.

The White Sox counter with Garrett Crochet, ranked 3rd among starters, an elite status that has not translated into wins, given his 6-12 record. Despite a solid 3.78 ERA, his performance has been marred by bad luck, as indicated by his lower 2.48 xFIP. Crochet’s challenge will be facing the Padres’ league-best contact hitters, who have proven difficult to strike out.

While the Padres’ offense, led by the red-hot Manny Machado, is capable of putting up runs in bunches, the White Sox struggle at the plate, ranking last in home runs and batting average. Despite Crochet’s elite ranking, the Padres’ combination of offensive firepower and home-field advantage makes them the projected favorites to secure the victory.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Over his previous 3 starts, Garrett Crochet has experienced a sizeable spike in his fastball velocity: from 96.5 mph over the whole season to 97.5 mph recently.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Lenyn Sosa has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .259 mark is quite a bit lower than his .322 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Joe Musgrove – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+165/-215)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Joe Musgrove is expected to ring up an average of 17.3 outs in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-290)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 80 games (+12.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 29 away games (+5.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Dominic Fletcher – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-15000)
  Dominic Fletcher has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 away games (+13.00 Units / 217% ROI)