How to Watch the Nationals vs Cubs Game – Thursday September 19, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs gear up to host the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on September 19, 2024, both teams find themselves on different ends of the performance spectrum this season. The Cubs, boasting a record of 77-75, have had an average year but remain in the playoff conversation. In contrast, the Nationals sit at 68-84, marking them as one of the less successful teams this season.

The Cubs will send right-hander Javier Assad to the mound. Despite being ranked as the 209th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Assad’s solid 3.27 ERA this year has been a bright spot. However, his 4.64 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit lucky, indicating potential regression. Meanwhile, Patrick Corbin takes the hill for the Nationals. With a 5.45 ERA, Corbin has had his struggles, but a 4.09 xFIP tells a different story, hinting at some misfortune and the possibility of improved performance.

The Cubs’ offense, ranked 12th best in MLB, presents a balanced attack, especially with their 6th ranking in stolen bases. However, their power output is just average, sitting 19th in home runs. Michael Busch has been a standout performer over the past week, notching three home runs and a 1.133 OPS. On the flip side, the Nationals rank 23rd in offense, struggling with power at 29th in home runs, although they excel in speed, leading the league in stolen bases.

In the bullpen, neither team shines, with the Cubs ranked 24th and the Nationals 26th. However, with the Cubs projected to score 5.41 runs and boasting a 61% projected win probability by THE BAT X, they are favored to take the first game of this series. Given the Nationals’ implied win probability of 38%, they face an uphill battle in this National League matchup.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Patrick Corbin has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 16.2% more often this year (57.7%) than he did last season (41.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Darren Baker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)
  Darren Baker may have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+160)
  The worst projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Washington Nationals.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Javier Assad’s 2035-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 10th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Seiya Suzuki has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .278 mark is a good deal higher than his .237 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games at home (+15.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.60 Units / 160% ROI)