How to Watch the Cubs vs Reds Game – Wednesday July 31, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park on July 31, 2024, in the third game of their series. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Reds holding a 51-55 record and the Cubs sitting at 51-57. This National League Central matchup features a pair of struggling offenses, and the game could be pivotal as the teams look to salvage their seasons.

The Reds are projected to start left-hander Nick Lodolo, who will face off against the Cubs’ right-hander Kyle Hendricks. Lodolo has shown promise but will need to navigate a Cubs offense that, while ranked 23rd in team batting average and home runs, has been effective on the basepaths, ranking 8th in stolen bases. Hendricks, on the other hand, will be up against a Reds lineup that ranks 27th in batting average but has displayed power with a 13th-place ranking in home runs and an impressive 1st-place ranking in stolen bases.

Offensively, the Reds have been led recently by Elly De La Cruz, who has been on a tear over the last week. In four games, De La Cruz has recorded six hits, including one home run, and six stolen bases, boasting a .375 batting average and a .974 OPS. For the Cubs, Seiya Suzuki has been their standout hitter over the last seven games, with a .318 batting average, two home runs, and a 1.105 OPS.

The pitching matchup could be a key factor in this game. Lodolo, being a lefty, might have an advantage against a Cubs lineup that has struggled overall. Meanwhile, Hendricks will need to contain the Reds’ speed on the bases, which has been a significant weapon for them this season.

Given the current projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Reds might have a slight edge in this contest, particularly if they can leverage their speed and power against Hendricks. However, with both teams looking to gain momentum, this game could go either way, making it an intriguing matchup for fans and bettors alike.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Kyle Hendricks’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2063 rpm) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (2004 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.292) may lead us to conclude that Pete Crow-Armstrong has been unlucky this year with his .236 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Recording 91.8 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Nick Lodolo places him the 77th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Jake Fraley is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 82 games (+10.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 82 games (+10.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Patrick Wisdom – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 40% ROI)