Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Angels
(-110/-110)+125
As the Los Angeles Angels and the Baltimore Orioles face off on May 11, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings, with the Angels sitting at 16-22 and the Orioles at 14-24. While neither team is in contention for a playoff spot, fans will be eager to see if either can turn their season around.
In their last game, the Orioles faced off against the Angels but fell short, marking a continuing trend of disappointment for both squads. The Angels’ lineup has been lackluster overall, ranking 26th in MLB offense, but they boast power potential with an impressive 52 home runs this season, placing them 5th in that category. Meanwhile, the Orioles are slightly better, ranking 21st overall but only 12th in home runs, indicating they have some hidden strength of their own.
On the mound, Tyler Anderson is projected to start for the Angels, holding a solid 2-0 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.68. However, his 4.71 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate thus far, and his projections indicate he could struggle against a patient Orioles lineup. Conversely, the Orioles will send Zach Eflin to the hill. Although he has a good record of 2-1 and an excellent ERA of 3.00, his own 4.59 xFIP implies he too could face tougher times ahead.
Zach Eflin, noted for his low strikeout rate, will need to navigate the Angels’ high-strikeout offense. This clash of Eflin’s control against the Angels’ power potential should make for an intriguing matchup. With a Game Total set at an elevated 9.0 runs, betting fans may find value in the Angels, despite their underdog status, as both teams continue to search for a spark in their seasons.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Zach Eflin – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Zach Eflin to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 73 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Cedric Mullins is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best batter in MLB.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Zach Neto has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.5-mph average to last year’s 94.5-mph figure.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O’Hoppe, Jo Adell, Kyren Paris).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-135)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+13.60 Units / 63% ROI)