Head-to-Head Preview: Nationals vs Braves Matchup 5/14/25

Washington Nationals

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Washington Nationals on May 14, 2025, at Truist Park, both teams are looking to improve their fortunes in this National League East matchup. After securing a 5-2 victory over the Nationals yesterday, the Braves will aim to ride that momentum against a struggling Washington squad that has lost seven of their last ten games.

Currently sitting at .500 with a record of 21-21, the Braves’ performance has been average, especially with their offense ranked 17th overall in MLB. Bryce Elder, projected to start for the Braves, has also had a somewhat lackluster season, holding a 2-2 record with a 4.97 ERA. However, his 3.93 xFIP suggests he might be due for some positive regression, as he’s been a bit unlucky so far this season. He projects to pitch around 5.7 innings and is expected to allow 2.6 earned runs, which is slightly above average.

On the mound for the Nationals will be Mitchell Parker, who boasts a more favorable 3.97 ERA but carries a troubling 5.40 xFIP. With a 3-3 record this season, Parker’s projections indicate he may struggle against the Braves’ offense, which—despite being average—can capitalize on pitching vulnerabilities. He’s projected to pitch approximately 5.2 innings while allowing 3.2 earned runs.

The Braves enter this game as betting favorites, with an implied team total of 5.02 runs, reflecting the confidence in their ability to exploit the Nationals’ pitching. The Game Total is high at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for an offensive showcase. With their best hitter heating up and boasting a scorching .643 batting average over the last week, the Braves should feel optimistic about their chances to extend their winning streak against a Nationals team that is still struggling to find their stride this season.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Mitchell Parker has gone to his curveball 5.7% less often this season (16.9%) than he did last season (22.6%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Over the last 7 days, Josh Bell’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Washington Nationals batters collectively rank 21st- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 7.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Bryce Elder’s 90.7-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 11th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Matt Olson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last season’s 91.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Today, Ozzie Albies is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.8% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.27 Units / 16% ROI)
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)
  Riley Adams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+14.25 Units / 356% ROI)