Head-to-Head Preview: D-Backs vs Marlins Matchup 8/20/24

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at LoanDepot Park on August 20, 2024, in the second game of their series. After a tough 9-6 loss to the Diamondbacks yesterday, the Marlins are looking to rebound against a team currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 70-56. Meanwhile, the Marlins sit at 46-79, having struggled throughout the year.

In this matchup, the Marlins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera, who has had an up-and-down season, sporting a 5.76 ERA and a 2-4 record over 13 starts. Cabrera’s xFIP of 3.95 suggests he might have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. However, he faces an uphill battle against the Diamondbacks’ potent offense, which ranks 2nd best in MLB and has been a driving force behind their success.

On the other side, left-handed pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound for Arizona. Rodriguez has posted a 5.06 ERA with a 1-0 record in just two starts this season, but his 4.44 xFIP indicates he may also improve. The projections suggest a close game, with the Marlins being undervalued at a +110 moneyline and an implied win probability of 46%. In contrast, the Diamondbacks, priced at -130, imply a 54% win probability.

Notably, Cabrera’s recent outing was less than stellar, as he struggled significantly in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs in just 4 innings. The Marlins offense, ranking 29th overall, will need to generate more runs to support Cabrera if they hope to claim victory. With advanced projections indicating a 51% win probability for Miami, there may be value in betting on the underdog Marlins as they aim to turn their season around.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Eduardo Rodriguez has used his four-seamer 6.9% less often this year (38.5%) than he did last season (45.4%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Geraldo Perdomo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Edward Cabrera’s 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 93rd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jake Burger has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 97.3-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Kyle Stowers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 62 games at home (+25.50 Units / 37% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 74 games (+18.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jonah Bride – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.20 Units / 32% ROI)