Head-to-Head Preview: Cubs vs Rockies Matchup 8/31/25

Chicago Cubs

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Colorado Rockies

As the Chicago Cubs visit Coors Field to face the Colorado Rockies on August 31, 2025, the stakes are high for the Cubs, who are aiming to maintain their solid position in the standings, currently sitting with a record of 78-58. In contrast, the Rockies have struggled mightily this season, sitting at 38-98. This game marks the third in the series between these two teams, and the Cubs won the previous matchup, a stark reminder of the Rockies’ ongoing struggles.

On the mound, Tanner Gordon is projected to start for Colorado. While he has been somewhat unlucky this season with a 6.44 ERA, his 4.84 xFIP suggests he may improve in the future. However, his current form is concerning, projecting just 4.5 innings pitched and 3.6 earned runs allowed on average today. Gordon’s low strikeout rate of 13.9% may hinder him against a Cubs offense that ranks 9th in MLB, which has shown its capacity to capitalize on pitching mistakes.

Matthew Boyd, on the other hand, will take the hill for Chicago. With a robust 2.82 ERA, Boyd is seen as one of the stronger pitchers in the league, ranking 36th among starters. Although he’s projected to pitch 4.9 innings with 3.0 earned runs allowed, Boyd’s effectiveness could be tempered by the Rockies’ offense, which ranks 27th in MLB this season.

In terms of betting, the Cubs enter as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -245 and an implied team total of 6.64 runs, while the Rockies at +205 have an implied total of 4.36 runs. Given the projections favoring the Cubs, bettors may find value in backing Chicago as they look to continue their good run against a struggling opponent.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Recording 17.7 outs per game per started this year on average, Matthew Boyd falls in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs project to score the most runs of all teams on the slate today, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+185)
  Given the 1.81 discrepancy between Tanner Gordon’s 6.44 ERA and his 4.63 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year and figures to perform better in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jordan Beck has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph dropping to 83.5-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 79 of their last 134 games (+15.62 Units / 10% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-245)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 69 of their last 134 games (+18.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+6.45 Units / 30% ROI)