Head-to-Head Preview: Braves vs Nationals Matchup 5/22/25

Atlanta Braves

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves meet for the second game of their series at Nationals Park on May 22, 2025. Last night, the Braves edged out the Nationals in a tightly contested matchup. Both teams are looking to gain momentum; the Nationals currently sit at 22-27, while the Braves are slightly better at 24-24.

On the mound, Trevor Williams is projected to start for the Nationals, bringing a challenging season record of 2-5 and an ERA of 5.91. Although Williams ranks as the 212th best starter among approximately 350 pitchers, advanced stats suggest he may have been a bit unlucky, as indicated by his 4.03 xFIP. However, his performance has been inconsistent, and he projects to allow around 5.1 hits and 1.5 walks today, which could pose significant challenges.

For the Braves, AJ Smith-Shawver takes the hill. With a record of 3-2 and a stellar ERA of 2.33, he has been a bright spot in Atlanta’s rotation. Yet, his 3.74 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. Despite these projections, he still represents a tough matchup for the Nationals’ offense, which has not been particularly explosive this season, ranking 15th overall.

The Nationals’ batting ranks are average, with their offense sitting at 18th in team batting average and 14th in home runs. In contrast, the Braves boast a comparable offensive ranking. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Nationals find themselves as underdogs with a moneyline of +130, reflecting a challenge for them to secure a victory against a slightly favored Braves team at -150. The projections suggest a competitive game, but the Nationals will need to harness their offensive potential to capitalize on any mistakes made by Smith-Shawver.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• AJ Smith-Shawver – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  As a result of his reverse platoon split, AJ Smith-Shawver will hold the advantage facing 8 bats in the projected offense of the opposite hand in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Matt Olson has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last season’s 91.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-155)
  The Atlanta Braves projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-best of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Trevor Williams’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this season (86.9 mph) below where it was last year (88.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like AJ Smith-Shawver.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals hitters as a group rank 22nd- in the game for power this year when judging by their 7.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+4.97 Units / 23% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Drake Baldwin has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+18.85 Units / 314% ROI)