Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Angels
(-105/-115)+160
As the Atlanta Braves face off against the Los Angeles Angels on August 18, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams as they look to improve their standings. The Braves, currently 65-58, are enjoying an above-average season and are positioned for a potential playoff push. In contrast, the Angels, at 53-70, are having a disappointing year and are unlikely to contend for a Wild Card spot.
In yesterday’s game, the Braves claimed a dominant 11-3 victory over the Angels, further solidifying their position in the standings. With the Angels struggling, they will turn to Jack Kochanowicz, who has been inconsistent this season, sporting a 1-2 record and an alarming ERA of 7.98. Despite his poor performance, his 4.79 xFIP suggests he might be due for some positive regression. However, Kochanowicz’s projections indicate he could allow 3.0 earned runs while striking out only 3.8 batters—numbers that might not bode well against a powerful Braves lineup.
Charlie Morton, on the other hand, will take the mound for Atlanta. Morton has been solid this season, posting a 6-7 record and a respectable ERA of 4.40. With projections pointing to him allowing just 2.9 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters, he presents a significant challenge for the Angels’ struggling offense, which ranks 24th in the league.
Interestingly, despite the betting market favoring the Braves with a -175 moneyline and an implied win probability of 61%, the leading MLB projection system suggests the Angels have a better chance than indicated, projecting them to score 4.76 runs in this contest. With value on the Angels as underdogs, this game could be more competitive than the odds suggest.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Charlie Morton – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Charlie Morton has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-190)Michael Harris II is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Marcell Ozuna pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Jack Kochanowicz will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing hitters today.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Mickey Moniak has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph to 99.1-mph over the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Niko Kavadas, Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+160)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 64 games (+6.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 101 games (+22.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-690)Ramon Laureano has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+19.90 Units / 199% ROI)