Head-to-Head Preview: Blue Jays vs Orioles Matchup 7/31/24)

Toronto Blue Jays

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Baltimore Orioles

On July 31, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This American League East matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Orioles, with a 63-44 record, are having a fantastic season and are in the thick of the playoff race. In contrast, the Blue Jays are struggling with a 50-57 record, finding themselves in a challenging spot.

The Orioles are projected to start Dean Kremer, a right-handed pitcher who has been a reliable part of their rotation. Kremer will face off against Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher for the Blue Jays. Both teams will be looking to their starters to set the tone in this fourth game of the series.

Baltimore’s offense has been a powerhouse this season, ranking 7th in team batting average and leading the league in home runs. This potent lineup will be looking to capitalize on Kikuchi’s tendency to give up the long ball. Cedric Mullins has been particularly hot over the last week, boasting a .333 batting average and a 1.178 OPS with 5 hits, 6 RBIs, and a home run in his last 7 games.

On the other hand, Toronto’s offense has struggled mightily, ranking 20th in team batting average and 27th in both home runs and stolen bases. However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a bright spot, hitting .500 with a 1.608 OPS, 12 hits, 10 runs, and 4 home runs over the last week. Guerrero’s recent surge will be crucial for the Blue Jays if they hope to overcome their offensive woes.

Given the Orioles’ strong season and potent offense, they have the edge in this matchup. The projections favor Baltimore, especially with their ability to hit home runs and Kremer’s consistency on the mound. Toronto will need a standout performance from Kikuchi and continued hot hitting from Guerrero to pull off the upset.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Paolo Espino – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Paolo Espino to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 76 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  As it relates to his batting average, George Springer has suffered from bad luck this year. His .226 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .284.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brian Serven, Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Grayson Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Grayson Rodriguez’s curveball percentage has risen by 7.5% from last year to this one (8.2% to 15.7%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (-130)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 54 of their last 104 games (+11.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 40 games (+17.90 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Jordan Westburg has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 35 games (+18.20 Units / 52% ROI)