Guardians vs White Sox Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 7/10/25

Cleveland Guardians

@

Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on July 10, 2025, they find themselves struggling in the standings with a record of 31-62, putting them at the bottom of the American League Central. The Guardians, meanwhile, sit at 43-48, showing signs of a below-average season but still aiming to improve. This matchup marks the first game in a series between these two teams.

In their last outing, the Guardians experienced a disappointing loss, which adds pressure as they face a White Sox team that has been having a terrible season. The White Sox will send Jonathan Cannon to the mound, who has had a tumultuous year with a 3-7 record and an average ERA of 4.50. Cannon is ranked as the 238th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s among the least effective arms in baseball. His projections suggest he will pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs, but his tendency to give up hits and walks could be detrimental.

On the other side, the Guardians will counter with Logan Allen, who has also struggled this season, holding a 5-7 record and a slightly better ERA of 4.07. While Allen’s projections are similar in terms of innings and earned runs, he has an xFIP of 4.69, suggesting he may have been fortunate this season.

Offensively, both teams are in the lower tier, with the White Sox ranked 30th in team batting average and the Guardians at 29th. However, the Guardians may have the edge with their best hitter performing well lately, boasting a .308 batting average and a 1.208 OPS over the last week. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup could be closer than anticipated, as the betting markets have the Guardians slightly favored.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Logan Allen has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 5.7% more often this season (57.4%) than he did last season (51.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Nolan Jones is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  In his previous GS, Jonathan Cannon was firing on all cylinders and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Michael A. Taylor’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 91.6-mph now compared to just 88.9-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Austin Slater has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+9.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+12.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.35 Units / 31% ROI)