Guardians vs Rays Injury Report – Saturday, July 13, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

@

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians are set to face off on July 13, 2024, at Tropicana Field in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. The Rays, sitting at an even 47-47, are having an average season, while the Guardians boast an impressive 57-36 record, indicating a great season thus far. This game marks the second in a series between the two teams, with the Rays coming off a 2-0 victory over the Guardians on July 12.

On the mound for the Rays will be Zack Littell, who has a 3-6 record and a 4.44 ERA over 17 starts. Despite an average ERA, Littell’s 3.83 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Littell’s last start was one to forget, as he allowed 7 earned runs over 4 innings on July 7. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects him to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs, which would be a solid outing.

Gavin Williams will start for the Guardians. Williams, who has started just two games this season, holds a 0-1 record with a 4.82 ERA. However, his 2.63 FIP indicates he has also been unlucky and could improve. In his last start on July 8, Williams pitched well, going 5 innings without allowing an earned run. The projections have him pitching 4.8 innings today, allowing 2.1 earned runs.

The Rays’ offense has struggled this season, ranking 22nd in MLB. They particularly lag in power, ranking 26th in home runs. However, they excel on the basepaths, ranking 5th in stolen bases. Isaac Paredes has been the standout for Tampa Bay, contributing 15 home runs and a .261 batting average. Yandy Diaz has been hot recently, hitting .458 with a 1.250 OPS over the last week.

Conversely, the Guardians have a more balanced offensive attack, ranking 12th overall, 13th in batting average, and 11th in home runs. Jose Ramirez continues to be their star, with 23 home runs, 77 RBIs, and a .272 batting average. Bo Naylor has been their best hitter over the past week, posting a 1.026 OPS.

Both teams feature strong bullpens, with the Rays ranked 9th and the Guardians 4th in the Power Rankings. Betting markets have this game as a toss-up, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X projects the Rays with a slight edge at 51%, making them a potentially valuable bet today.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Gavin Williams has averaged 76 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 3rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Zack Littell has utilized his four-seamer 7.4% less often this season (20.5%) than he did last season (27.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be wise to expect worse results for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games at home (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 53 of their last 90 games (+12.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1700)
  Daniel Schneemann has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+11.00 Units / 138% ROI)